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如何抓住机遇,利用人工智能为您的业务增值(英文版).pdf

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Sizing the prize What’s the real value of AI for your business and how can you capitalise? +26% +14% Artificial intelligence (AI) is a source of both huge excitement and apprehension. What are the real opportunities and threats for your business? Drawing on a detailed analysis of the business impact of AI, we at PwC identify the most valuable commercial opening in your market and how to take advantage of them. www.pwc.com/AI According to PwC research carried out for this report, global GDP could be up to 14% higher in 2030 as a result of AI – the equivalent of an additional $15.7 trillion – making it the biggest commercial opportunity in today’s fast changing economy The greatest gains from AI are likely to be in China (boost of up to 26% GDP in 2030) and North America (potential 14% boost). The biggest sector gains will be in retail, financial services and healthcare as AI increases productivit y, product quality and consumption.Human in the loop Hardwired /specific systems Adaptive systems In our broad definition, AI is a collective term for computer systems that can sense their environment, think, learn, and take action in response to what they’re sensing and their objectives. Forms of AI in use today include, among others, digital assistants, chatbots and machine learning. AI works in four ways: Automated intelligence: Automation of manual/cognitive and routine/non- routine tasks. Assisted intelligence: Helping people to perform tasks faster and better. Augmented intelligence: Helping people to make better decisions. Autonomous intelligence: Automating decision making processes without human intervention. As humans and machines collaborate more closely, and AI innovations come out of the research lab and into the mainstream, the transformational possibilities are staggering. Defining AI Assisted Intelligence AI systems that assist humans in making decisions or taking actions. Hard-wired systems that do not learn from their interactions. Augmented Intelligence AI systems that augment human decision making and continuously learn from their interactions with humans and the environment. Automation Automation of manual and cognitive tasks that are either routine or non- routine. This does not involve new ways of doing things – automates existing tasks. No human in the loop Autonomous Intelligence AI systems that can adapt to different situations and can act autonomously without human assistance. For a full glossary of AI techniques and their applications, please see page 26. 2 Sizing the prizeContents Introduction 4 Big prize, big impact 6 AI Impact Index 12 Realising the potential 22 Conclusion 24 3 What’s the real value of AI for your business and how can you capitalise?Business leaders are asking: What impact will AI have on my organisation, and is our business model threatened by AI disruption? And as these leaders look to capitalise on AI opportunities, they’re asking: Where should we target investment, and what kind of capabilities would enable us to perform better? Cutting across all these considerations is how to build AI in the responsible and transparent way needed to maintain the confidence of customers and wider stakeholders. These are the strategic questions we’ll be addressing in a series of reports designed to help enterprises create a clear and compelling business case for AI investment and development. While there’s been a lot of research on the impact of automation, it’s only part of the story. In this new series of PwC reports, we want to highlight how AI can enhance and augment what enterprises can do, the value potential of which is as large, if not larger, than automation. There’s a lot of expectation surrounding artificial intelligence (AI). There’s also a significant amount of wariness. Introduction: Getting down to what really counts 4 Sizing the prizeThe analysis carried out for this report gauges the economic potential for AI between now and 2030, including for regional economies and eight commercial sectors worldwide. Through our AI Impact Index, we also look at how improvements to personalisation/customisation, quality and functionality could boost value, choice and demand across nearly 300 use cases of AI, along with how quickly transformation and disruption are likely to take hold. Other key elements of the research include in-depth sector- by-sector analyses. In this opening report, we outline the regional economies that are set to gain the most and the three business areas with greatest AI potential in each of eight sectors. Future reports will focus on specific sectors, along with functional areas such as marketing, finance and talent management. We’ll also be setting out the detailed economic projections and, in partnership with Forbes magazine, publishing interviews with some of the business leaders at the forefront of AI. Game changer What comes through strongly from all the analysis we’ve carried out for this report is just how big a game changer AI is likely to be, and how much value potential is up for grabs. AI could contribute up to $15.7 trillion 1 to the global economy in 2030, more than the current output of China and India combined. Of this, $6.6 trillion is likely to come from increased productivity and $9.1 trillion is likely to come from consumption- side effects. While some markets, sectors and individual businesses are more advanced than others, AI is still at a very early stage of development overall. From a macroeconomic point of view, there are therefore opportunities for emerging markets to leapfrog more developed counterparts. And within your business sector, one of today’s start-ups or a business that hasn’t even been founded yet could be the market leader in ten years’ time. $15.7 trillion 1 $ denotes US dollars throughout, estimated values are expressed in real terms at 2016 prices (i.e. excluding the impact of general price inflation when looking ahead to 2030). 5 What’s the real value of AI for your business and how can you capitalise?How much is at stake and why should you take action? From the personal assistants in our mobile phones, to the profiling, customisation, and cyber protection that lie behind more and more of our commercial interactions, AI touches almost every aspect of our lives. And it’s only just getting started. Big prize, big impact: Why AI matters AI touches almost every aspect of our lives. And it’s only just getting started. According to our analysis, global GDP will be up to 14% higher in 2030 as a result of the accelerating development and take-up of AI – the equivalent of an additional $15.7 trillion. The economic impact of AI will be driven by: 1. Productivity gains from businesses automating processes (including use of robots and autonomous vehicles). 2. Productivity gains from businesses augmenting their existing labour force with AI technologies (assisted and augmented intelligence). 3. Increased consumer demand resulting from the availability of personalised and/or higher-quality AI-enhanced products and services. 6 Sizing the prizeAs new technologies are gradually adopted and consumers respond to improved products with increased demand, the share of impact from product innovation increases over time. Labour productivity improvements are expected to account for over 55% of all GDP gains from AI over the period 2017 – 2030. 58% of all GDP gains in 2030 will come from consumption side impacts. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18000 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Global GDP impact by eect of AI (£trillion) Labour Productivity Personalisation Time Saved Quality $ trillion How we gauged the impact and potential of AI To estimate the impact and potential of AI, our team conducted an ambitious, dual-phased top-down and bottom-up analysis. In addition to drawing on input from our extensive network of clients, and sector and functional advisors within PwC, we’ve been working with our partners at Forbes and Fraunhofer, a global leader in emerging technology research and development. Together, we set out to identify the most compelling examples of potential AI applications across each sector’s value chain, and designed a framework to assess the degree and pace of impact of each. In total, we identified and rated nearly 300 use cases, which are captured in our AI Impact Index. Our Econometrics unit then used this bottom-up input as part of their top-down analysis assessing AI’s impact on, and the interactions between, key elements of the economy including labour, productivity, business and government. The models were informed by global economic datasets, extensive academic literature, and existing PwC work on automation. The analysis looked at the total economic impact of AI, accounting for increased productivity (which may involve the displacement of some existing jobs), the creation of new jobs, new products, and other effects. We’ll be publishing an extended technical read out of these results later in the year. For a more detailed methodology see page 27. Over the past decade, almost all aspects of how we work and how we live – from retail to manufacturing to healthcare – have become increasingly digitised. The internet and mobile technologies drove the first wave of digital, known as the Internet of People. However, analysis carried out by PwC’s AI specialists anticipates that the data generated from the Internet of Things (IoT) will outstrip the data generated by the Internet of People many times over. This increased data is already resulting in standardisation, which naturally leads to automation, and the personalisation of products and services, which is setting off the next wave of digital. AI will exploit the digital data from people and things to automate and assist in what we do today, as well as find new ways of doing things that we’ve not imagined before. Productivity gains In the near-term, the biggest potential economic uplift from AI is likely to come from improved productivity (see Figure 1). This includes automation of routine tasks, augmenting employees’ capabilities and freeing them up to focus on more stimulating and higher value- adding work. Capital-intensive sectors such as manufacturing and transport are likely to see the largest productivity gains from AI, given that many of their operational processes are highly susceptible to automation. The impact on productivity could be competitively transformative – businesses that fail to adapt and adopt could quickly find themselves undercut on turnaround times as well as costs. They stand to lose a significant amount of their market share as a result. However, the potential of this initial phase of AI application mainly centres on enhancing what’s already being done, rather than creating too much that’s new. Source: PwC analysis Figure 1: Where will the value gains come from with AI? 7 What’s the real value of AI for your business and how can you capitalise?Increased consumer demand Eventually, the GDP uplift from product enhancements and subsequent shifts in consumer demand, behaviour and consumption emanating from AI will overtake the productivity gains, potentially delivering more than $9 trillion of additional GDP in 2030. Consumers will be mostly attracted to higher quality and more personalised products and services, but will also have the chance to make better use of their time – think of what you could do if you no longer had to drive yourself to work, for example. In turn, increased consumption creates a virtuous cycle of more data touchpoints and hence more data, better insights, better products and hence more consumption. The consumer revolution set off by AI opens the way for massive disruption as both established businesses and new entrants drive innovation and develop new business models. A key part of the impact of AI will come from its ability to make the most of parallel developments such as IoT connectivity 2 . AI front-runners will have the advantage of superior customer insight. The immediate competitive benefits include an improved ability to tap into consumer preferences, tailor their output to match these individual demands and, in doing so, capture an ever bigger slice of the market. And the front-runners’ ability to shape product developments around this rich supply of customer data will make it harder and harder for slower moving competitors to keep pace and could eventually make their advantage unassailable. We can already see this data-driven innovation and differentiation in the way books, music, video and entertainment are produced, distributed and consumed, resulting in new business models, new market leaders and the elimination of traditional players that fail to adapt quickly enough. Healthcare, automotive and financial services are the sectors with the greatest potential for product enhancement and disruption due to AI according to our analysis. However, there is also significant potential for competitive advantage in particular areas of other sectors, ranging from on-demand manufacturing to sharper content targeting within entertainment (we set out the business areas with most AI potential in each sector in the next section). Some job displacement – but also new employment opportunities The adoption of ‘no-human-in-the-loop’ technologies will mean that some posts will inevitably become redundant, but others will be created by the shifts in productivity and consumer demand emanating from AI, and through the value chain of AI itself. In addition to new types of workers who will focus on thinking creatively about how AI can be developed and applied, a new set of personnel will be required to build, maintain, operate, and regulate these emerging technologies. For example, we will need the equivalent of air traffic controllers to control the autonomous vehicles on the road. Same day delivery and robotic packaging and warehousing are also resulting in more jobs for robots and for humans. All of this will facilitate the creation of new jobs that would not have existed in a world without AI. Impact on different regions As Figure 2 highlights, some economies have the potential to gain more than others in both absolute and relative terms. China and North America are likely to see the biggest impact, though all economies should benefit. 2 AI is the key to realising the promise of IoT as AI becomes an indispensable element of IoT solutions and the convergence of AI and IoT spur the development of ‘smart’ machines. We explore this further in ‘Leveraging the upcoming disruptions from AI and IoT’ (https:// www.pwc.com/gx/en/industries/communications/assets/pwc-ai-and-iot.pdf) 8 Sizing the prizeFigure 2: Which regions will gain the most from AI? Figure 1: Which regions gain the most from AI? North America Total impact: 14.5% of GDP Latin America Total impact: 5.4% of GDP ($3.7trillion) ($0.5trillion) Total impact: 5.6% of GDP ($1.2trillion) Total impact: 11.5% of GDP ($0.7trillion) Southern Europe Africa, Oceania and other Asian markets Total impact: 10.4% of GDP ($0.9trillion) Developed Asia Total impact: 9.9% of GDP ($1.8trillion) Northern Europe China Total impact: 26.1% of GDP ($7.0trillion) Developing countries will experience more modest increases due the much lower rates of adoption of AI technologies expected. 2 26. 6.1 1% % 14 14.5 .5% % 2030 North America and China stand to see the biggest economic gains with AI enhancing GDP by 70% of the global economic impact All regions of the global economy will experience benets from articial intelligence. Total $10.7 trillion 9 9.9 .9% % 1 10. 0.4 4% % 2030 Europe and Developed Asia will also experience signicant economic gains from AI enhancing GDP by 11 11.5 .5% % All GDP gures are reported in market exchange rate terms All GDP gures are reported in real 2016 prices, GDP baseline based on Market Exchange Rate Basis Net effect of AI, not growth prediction Our results are generated using a large scale dynamic economic model of the global economy. The model is built on the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database. GTAP provides detail on the size of different economic sectors (57 in total) and how they trade with each other through their supply chains. It gives this detail on a consistent basis for 140 different countries. When considering the results, there are two important factors that you should take into account: 1. Our results show the economic impact of AI only – our results may not show up directly into future economic growth figures, as there will be many positive or negative forces that either amplify or cancel out the potential effects of AI (e.g. shifts in global trade policy, financial booms and busts, major commodity price changes, geopolitical shocks etc.). 2. Our economic model results are compared to a baseline of long-term steady state economic growth. The baseline is constructed from three key elements: population growth, growth in the capital stock and technological change. The assumed baseline rate of technological change is based on average historical trends. It’s very difficult to separate out how far AI will just help economies to achieve long-term average growth rates (implying the contribution from existing technologies phase out over time) or simply be additional to historical average growth rates (given that these will have factored in major technological advances of earlier periods). These two factors mean that our results should be interpreted as the potential ‘size of the economic prize’ associated with AI, as opposed to direct estimates of future economic growth. Source: PwC analysis 9 What’s the real value of AI for your business and how can you capitalise?North America In North America, the potential uplift to GDP from AI will be amplified by the huge opportunities to introduce more productive technologies, many of which are ready to be applied. And the gains will be accelerated by the advanced technological and consumer readiness for AI, along with the impact of rapid accumulation of assets – not just technology, but data touchpoints and the flows of information and customer insight that come with them. North America is likely to see the fastest boost in the next few years. While the impact will still be strong from the middle of the 2020s, it probably won’t be quite as high as in the earlier years. One of the main reasons is that as productivity in China begins to catch up with North America, this will stimulate exports of AI-enabled products from China to North America. China The high proportion of Chinese GDP that comes from manufacturing heightens the potential uplift from introducing more productive technologies. It is likely to take some time to build up the technology and expertise needed to implement these capabilities and therefore the GDP boost won’t be as rapid as the US. But in around ten years’ time, the productivity gains in China could begin to pull ahead. A key part of the value potential comes from the higher rate of capital re-investment within the Chinese economy compared to Europe and North America, as profits from Chinese businesses are fed into increasing AI capabilities and returns. AI will also play an important part in the shift to a more consumer-oriented economy on the one hand and the move up the value chain into more sophisticated and high tech-driven manufacturing and commerce on the other. The focus and investment are amply demonstrated by the surge in AI patents filed in China 3 . An acceleration in talent development in areas such as analytics will be crucial in realising the potential gains from AI within the Chinese economy. North America is likely to see the fastest boost in the next few years. 3 China is now second behind the US in AI patent filings, a key indicator of long-term trends in technology. Source: ‘The Global Race for Artificial Intelligence – Comparison of Patenting Trends’, Wilson Center, 1 March 2017 (https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/the- global-race-for-artificial-intelligence-comparison-patenting-trends) Critical assumptions Our estimates reflect certain assumptions, which we will stress-test in our forthcoming detailed economic assessment. What happens if the pace of AI adoption is faster/slower in particular countries, for example? How does that affect the distribution of global growth? What happens if estimated changes in product quality do not materialise? A slowdown in the pace of AI uptake would delay the benefits that feed through to labour productivity. We see this as a key driver to both the timing and the overall impact of AI on GDP. We’re currently exploring the quantitative effect of several key scenarios. This includes examining alternate combinations of input parameters, as well as the timing of AI uptake. These sensitivity tests are designed to help better understand the risks around our results, while providing more insight into the parameters that drive the relationship between AI and economic growth. We plan to present the results of several scenarios in our detailed economic assessment. 10 Sizing the prizeAutomation in action An online insurer has leveraged an AI bot to automate the claims process from beginning to end. Instead of the days or even months it traditionally took to settle a claim, the bot is able to complete the entire pipeline from claims receipt, policy reference, fraud detection, payout and notification to customers in just three seconds. When rolled out at scale, this solution is poised to have a huge impact on the insurance industry. How to respond? If your business is operating in one of the sectors or economies that is gearing up for fast adoption of AI, you’ll have to move quickly if you want to capitalise on the openings, and ensure your business doesn’t lose out to faster-moving and more cost-efficient competitors. If you’re in one of the sectors or economies where the disruptive potential is lower and adoption likely to be slower, there is still a significant challenge ahead – no sector or business is in any way immune from the impact of AI. In fact, the potential for innovation and differentiation could be all the greater because fewer market players are currently focusing on AI. The big question is how to secure the talent, technology and access to data to make the most of this opportunity. Doing nothing is not a feasible option. It’s easy to dismiss a lot of what’s said about AI as hype. Yet as our analysis underlines, without decisive response, many well established enterprises and even whole business models are at risk of being rendered obsolete. In the short-term, many of the opportunities and threats are likely to focus on productivity, efficiency and cost – the transformative phase. If you’re the CEO of a transport and logistics company, for example, you’re already seeing the impact of robots within packing and fulfilment operations. The bigger disruption will emerge when the sector switches to autonomous trucking. Are you in a position to move ahead of your competitors? What are the openings for vehicle manufacturers, technology companies and other potential new entrants to make inroads in your market? Could your business be at risk of becoming obsolete if you don’t move quickly enough? Source: PwC AI specialists Figure 3: How quickly will AI impact productivity? North America and China are expected to witness the great- est GDP gains from AI increas- ing productivity, but the trajec- tory over impact for the two countries diers. China will likely uptake AI technology more slowly but could see a large impact on GDP by 2030. North America is expected to realise the majority of AI benets faster. 11 What’s the real value of AI for your business and how can you capitalise?AI is set to be the key source of transformation, disruption and competitive advantage in today’s fast changing economy. Drawing on the findings of our AI Impact Index, we look at how quickly change is coming and where your business can expect the greatest return. In the research carried out for this report, we’ve drilled down to the sector-by-sector and product- by-product impact of AI to enable your business to target the opportunities, pinpoint the threats and judge how to address them. AI Impact Index: Targeting and timing your investment The unique analysis within PwC’s AI Impact Index includes a rating for the potential to free up time and enhance quality and personalisation. We’ve used this analysis to create nearly 300 use cases setting out the openings for innovation; the drivers, timings and current feasibility of market adoption; what could hold this up and how these barriers could be overcome. The areas with the biggest potential and associated timelines we outline here are designed to help your business target investment in the short – to medium-term. Some aspects of change, such as robotic doctors, could be even more revolutionary, but are further off. 12 Sizing the prizePotential AI Consumption Impact Personalisation Time Saved Utility Dat
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